Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?
JeopolitikYZOne-OffAvrupaRegülasyonÇinPolitika7y
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 70%
Tahminciler
18
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
1 saat önce güncellendi
Gecikmeli24 Mar 26 14:41 UTC31 Ara 33 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will there be more international travelers to Japan in 2026 than in 2025?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a serious lawsuit against AGI development because x-risk, in the West before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a protest attracting 100,000 participants against AGI development occur before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a protest attracting 10,000 participants against AGI development occur before 2030?
Manifold MarketsOklahoma enacts data center moratorium by which date?
PolymarketLouisiana enacts data center moratorium by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2034, there is a formal, publicly announced international agreement or coordinated policy that constitutes a moratorium on frontier AGI development, meeting the criteria below.
- The concept of “moratorium” here refers to a halt or prohibition on training or deploying frontier AI systems at or beyond certain established threshold (may it be capabilies, scale, speed, or something else meanigfully correlated with general capabilities), combined with serious enforcement mechanisms, not merely voluntary guidelines or safety recommendations.
- Core Resolution Criteria
- The market resolves YES if ALL of the following conditions are met:
- Substance: Actual Moratorium
- A policy, treaty, or coordinated set of national policies explicitly aims to: