Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 85%
Tahminciler
17
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
13 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis16 Eki 23 02:31 UTC2 Oca 31 04:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsVesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiWill some Millennium Prize Prize Problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
This market resolves YES for generally the same criteria as https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-the-vesuvius-challenge-recover
- HOWEVER, the test is not for "at least one known lost work" but rather "at least 85% of one 1000-word-or-more passage".
- This should diverge from @LarsDoucet 's market and result in YES when his would NO in at least the following conditions:
- The challenge recovers everything, but the original work stored in the Vesuvius library was already universally incomplete (e.g., if it turns out scribes as of 79 AD already had lost access to part of a work)
- The challenge recovers everything, but the original work stored in the Vesuvius library was locally incomplete (e.g., a particular chapter scroll of a larger work had been by bad luck been borrowed that day by a scribe for copying, and that scribe took the scroll with him when evacuating, and it was lost to history)
- The challenge doesn't recover everything -- we just have less luck recovering consistent long blocks of text, versus fragmentary passages, than Lars hopes.
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 85% fiyatlıyor.
- Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 2 Ocak 2031.
- Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: This market resolves YES for generally the same criteria as https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-the-vesuvius-challenge-recover