Güncel topluluk tahmini
Evet 78.9%
Tahminciler
22
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
3 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis19 May 23 17:36 UTC31 Ara 30 23:00 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
What year will the IMO grand challenge be completed?
Manifold MarketsTime between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)
Manifold MarketsWill the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030?
Manifold MarketsAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiKurallar
This resolves YES if the IMO grand challenge is completed before the end of 2030 according to the rules on the site https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/ according to the IMO Grand Challenge committee.
- This requires an AI to generate machine-checkable proof of enough problems on one of the of the IMOs in 2023-2030 for a gold medal (there are more rules on the website).
- This resolves NO if this has not happened at the start of 2031.
- It will also resolve NO if a few weeks after the IMO in 2030 there is nobody claiming that the IMO grand challenge has been solved.
- This resolves N/A if the IMO grand challenge is either canceled or abandoned (e.g. there is a serious claim that the challenge is completed and nobody of the committee comments on the submission for multiple months).
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
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KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-5.0pt69%
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- claude-opus-5-max-3.0pt3%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-0.5pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.1pt59.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt25%
- Grok+0.6pt7.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
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- 1480+-5.5pt66%
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+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
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Sık sorulan sorular
- Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 79% fiyatlıyor.
- Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2030.
- Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: This resolves YES if the IMO grand challenge is completed before the end of 2030 according to the rules on the site https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/ according to the IMO Grand Challenge committee.