Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 57%
Tahminciler
5
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
14 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis8 Nis 26 02:01 UTC31 Ara 30 01:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
will a nuclear bomb be thrown in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear bomb be used against Iran before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Kazakhstan get a nuclear bomb before end of 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill South Korea have a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketKurallar
Excludes nuclear tests by countries, (except a test gone wrong like a nk test ends up in sk type situation)
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a nuclear weapon is detonated in a hostile capacity during a conflict, and this detonation is widely characterized by major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC, The New York Times) as the catalyst that ends that specific, ongoing, large-scale armed conflict.
- This market resolves NO if a nuclear weapon is detonated in a hostile capacity and is reported by major international news outlets as the precipitating event that initiates or significantly escalates a new, worldwide, or multi-national conflict.
- "Hostile capacity" excludes controlled nuclear tests.
- A "test gone wrong" resulting in damage or loss of life in another sovereign territory that leads to a conflict will count as the beginning of a conflict.
Açık piyasalar
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.3pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.0pt3%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,3 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺29,5 Mn
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.9pt47.8%
- October 31-3.0pt29.2%
- September 30-4.0pt12.4%
+17 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-5.0pt74%
- September 18-10.0pt67%
- September 11-2.5pt63%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺2 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,3 Mn
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 57% fiyatlıyor.
- Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2030.
- Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Excludes nuclear tests by countries, (except a test gone wrong like a nk test ends up in sk type situation)