Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 91.6%
Tahminciler
15
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
54 dakika önce güncellendi
Gecikmeli7 Nis 26 15:57 UTC31 Ara 29 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will a dirty bomb be used by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear bomb be detonated in or above Canada before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhat will the primary target of the next nuclear bomb used in conflict be?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear bomb be used in a terrorist attack before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill South Korea have a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurKurallar
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if at least one nuclear weapon is detonated within the internationally recognized borders of Iran at any time before January 1, 2030.
- For the purposes of this market, "nuclear weapon" is defined as any explosive device that derives its destructive force from nuclear reactions (fission, fusion, or a combination thereof).
- The determination will be based on consensus reporting from major international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC) and official verification from international bodies such as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or the United Nations.
- If there is no confirmation of such an event by the resolution date, the market will resolve to NO.
- As of April 2026, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East involves active conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel.
