Will post-WWII international orders die before 2030?
Ticaret PolitikasıOne-OffJeopolitikPolitikaRusya / UkraynaÇinAvrupa3yManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 68.1%
Tahminciler
2
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
10 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis16 Eki 26 21:33 UTC31 Ara 29 11:00 UTC
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Manifold MarketsKurallar
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, prior to January 1, 2030 (11:59 PM UTC), the core institutional framework of the post-WWII rules-based international order formally collapses or ceases to function, operationalized by at least one of the following objective events:
- Dissolution or Paralysis of the United Nations: The formal dissolution of the UN, or the withdrawal/expulsion of at least two permanent members of the UN Security Council (P5), or an official cessation of UN General Assembly operations.
- Collapse of Core Post-WWII Multilateral Pacts: The formal dissolution of NATO, or the formal termination/withdrawal of the majority of founding members from the Bretton Woods institutions (the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank).
- Direct Great-Power War: An officially declared war or direct, sustained conventional military conflict between two or more UN Security Council permanent members (United States, China, Russia, United Kingdom, France).
- If none of these objective milestones occur before January 1, 2030, this market resolves to NO.
