Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 95.9%
Tahminciler
98
Soru türü
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Piyasa verileri
11 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis3 Oca 26 03:16 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?
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Manifold MarketsIf the US strikes Iran by June 30th, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsManifold thinks the Iranian regime is in a stronger position on the anniversary of the start of Operation Epic Fury
Manifold MarketsWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
LimitlessKurallar
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran is overthrown or ceases to exist as the governing authority of Iran by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution requires a change in the fundamental structure of state power—either through popular uprising, military coup, or other means—resulting in the end of clerical rule under the current system.
- The market resolves NO if the Islamic Republic remains the de facto governing authority at year-end, regardless of internal instability, leadership changes within the system, or concessions made to protesters.
- Mass demonstrations erupted across Iran beginning December 28, 2025, initially sparked by frustration over skyrocketing inflation, rising food prices, and severe depreciation of the Iranian rial, but quickly evolved into a broader movement demanding an end to the Islamic Republic's rule.
- The country's rial currency lost nearly half its value against the dollar in 2025, with inflation standing at about 50 percent in December.