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24 Eki 2026 17:10 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4
Güncel ima edilen olasılık
Hayır 94.5%
Hayır 94.5%Piyasa kalitesi
30 / 100
Düşük kalite24s Hacim
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Likidite
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Likidite bilinmiyorPiyasa verileri
9 dakika önce güncellendi
25 Ağu 26 12:25 UTC1 Oca 27 04:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?
PolymarketIf Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf the US strikes Iran by June 30th, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Iranian regime be overthrown?
Manifold MarketsWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?
PolymarketKurallar
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran.
- This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify.
- Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify.
- Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.