Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini2027-2028 37.2%6 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
14
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
+2.3 pts
Piyasa verileri
12 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis8 Eki 25 18:11 UTC1 Oca 36 19:07 UTC
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KalshiKurallar
Resolution criteria
- Resolves to the calendar date of the S&P 500’s last all‑time closing high (price index) immediately preceding the next “bubble burst,” defined as a ≥35% peak‑to‑trough decline in the S&P 500 closing level that is reached within 18 months and occurs in a window spanning from 6 months before to 12 months after the official start month of the next U.S. recession as dated by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
- The qualifying peak date is the resolution date.
- Data sources: NBER recession dates and announcements; S&P 500 daily close on FRED.
- Measurement details: use the S&P 500 price index daily close (no dividends), peak and trough measured on closing values, and the drawdown threshold is calculated as (trough_close − peak_close) / peak_close ≤ −35% within 18 months of the peak.
- If multiple peaks satisfy the criteria for the same recession window, resolve to the earliest qualifying peak date.