Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 55.3%
Tahminciler
65
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
18 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis18 Eki 23 16:53 UTC20 Eki 32 03:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will tipping your landlord be normalized within the next decade?
Manifold MarketsWill we see a nuclear weapon used to attack another country within the next decade?
Manifold MarketsWill we have useful fault-tolerant Quantum Computers within the next decade
Manifold MarketsWill LPL Financial Holdings Inc (LPLA) be added to the S&P 500 by the end of 2026?
ForecastExWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketKurallar
As per Business Insider, SEC Chariman Gary Gensler says this is 'nearly unavoidable.'
- "I do think we will in the future have a financial crisis . . .[and] in the after action reports people will say 'Aha! There was either one data aggregator or one model . . . we've relied on.' Maybe it's in the mortgage market.
- Maybe it's in some sector of the equity market," he said.
- I figured it would be fun to see how likely we actually think it is.
- Note that the 'models go haywire' scenario is not required, only that AI be to blame in some way.
- This resolves to YES if there is a period of one month during which the stock market (S&P 500) declines in nominal terms by 20% or more between market closes AND that decline is generally attributed to AI (e.g. Wikipedia says this, or whatever passes for consensus authority by 2032, I will use best judgment).
Açık piyasalar
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+3.0pt86.1%
- Yes-3.0pt13.9%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺702 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺13,8 Mn
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-0.5pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-12.0pt41%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-15.0pt40%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-19.0pt29%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt19.8%
- $1.75T–$2.0T18.9%
- $1.5T–$1.75T17.9%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- Space Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032) için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 55% fiyatlıyor.
- Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032) ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032) için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 20 Ekim 2032.
- Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032) nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: As per Business Insider, SEC Chariman Gary Gensler says this is 'nearly unavoidable.'