Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032) için güncel oranlar nedir?

Manifold Markets, 26 Ekim 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 56% fiyatlıyor.

Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032) ne zaman sonuçlanacak?

Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032) için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 20 Ekim 2032.

Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: As per Business Insider, SEC Chariman Gary Gensler says this is 'nearly unavoidable.'

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Evet 56%

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binary

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Play-money forecasting platform

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23 saat önce güncellendi

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1 Ağu 26 16:23 UTC20 Eki 32 03:59 UTC

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As per Business Insider, SEC Chariman Gary Gensler says this is 'nearly unavoidable.'

"I do think we will in the future have a financial crisis . . .[and] in the after action reports people will say 'Aha! There was either one data aggregator or one model . . . we've relied on.' Maybe it's in the mortgage market.
Maybe it's in some sector of the equity market," he said.
I figured it would be fun to see how likely we actually think it is.
Note that the 'models go haywire' scenario is not required, only that AI be to blame in some way.
This resolves to YES if there is a period of one month during which the stock market (S&P 500) declines in nominal terms by 20% or more between market closes AND that decline is generally attributed to AI (e.g. Wikipedia says this, or whatever passes for consensus authority by 2032, I will use best judgment).