Güncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 79%
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5
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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9 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis3 Şub 25 09:46 UTC1 Oca 41 04:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will AGI cause US nominal GDP to at least double between 2025 to 2035?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
PolymarketOpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-level performance' or 'AGI has been reached' in 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS Nominal GDP in 2026
KalshiJapan Nominal GDP in 2026
KalshiKurallar
Historically, the U.S. economy has taken about 15–20 years to double in size when looking at nominal GDP.
- For instance, it went from roughly $10 trillion in 2000 to around $20 trillion in 2017.
- Some experts argue that the emergence of AGI—or an AI passing the Turing test—could radically boost productivity and compress this timeline, allowing the economy to double in just 2 years.
- This question focuses on whether that transformative AI milestone will, in fact, speed up U.S. nominal GDP growth to such an extent.
- Resolution Criteria
- Event Trigger: A widely recognized, public declaration that an AI system has achieved AGI or passed the Turing test.
Açık piyasalar
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt54.5%
- No change-2.0pt45.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺5,1 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺86,5 Mn
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺20,2 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺2 Mn
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺30,9 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺1,7 Mn
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt54.2%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.8%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺4,5 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺429,2 B
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.5pt51.9%
- 0.3%+4.0pt34.6%
- 0.1%-2.5pt9.6%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- CPI in September
- CPI-U index in August
- August Inflation US - Annual
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- CPI core in August
- August Inflation China - Annual
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
İlgili Kriptolar
Sık sorulan sorular
- When AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 2 years? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 79% fiyatlıyor.
- When AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 2 years? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- When AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 2 years? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2041.
- When AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 2 years? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Historically, the U.S. economy has taken about 15–20 years to double in size when looking at nominal GDP.