What will happen in the world throughout the 2020s
31.7 puan (24s)RegülasyonOne-OffMakro ve EkonomiTeknolojiUzayEkonomiYZJeopolitikÇinLatin AmerikaSağlık ve Tıp3yManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiA country officially transitions to 100% renewable energy for electricity. 81.7%+31.7pt16 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
12
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
+31.7 pts
Piyasa verileri
8 dakika önce güncellendi
11 Eki 26 03:29 UTC31 Ara 29 11:00 UTC
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
What will happen in the world in the 2030s
Manifold MarketsWill the federal government ban the sale or making of cultured meat throughout US by the end of 2028?
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Manifold MarketsThroughout the 2028 presidental debates, will Ukraine be mentioned more times than Taiwan?
Manifold MarketsWhich Money & Macro megatrends for 2026 will be correct?
Manifold MarketsWhich positive news category will make 2026 world-wide headlines?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
Resolution criteria
- Each option in this market resolves independently to YES, NO, or N/A based on whether the specified event occurs on or before December 31, 2029, 23:59 UTC:
- A human lands on Mars: Resolves YES if a crewed space mission successfully lands a living human on the surface of Mars.
- A major global economy adopts a central bank digital currency (CBDC): Resolves YES if a top-10 economy by nominal GDP (e.g., US, China, Eurozone members, Japan, UK, India, Brazil) officially launches and deploys a retail or commercial CBDC nationally.
- Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is officially recognized by a major research body: Resolves YES if a major AI research institution (e.g., OpenAI, DeepMind, Anthropic, or an international body like AAAI) formally announces that an AI system has achieved human-level general intelligence.
- A permanent base is established on the Moon: Resolves YES if a habitat intended for sustained or recurring human presence (e.g., NASA Artemis Base Camp or the International Lunar Research Station) is operational on the lunar surface.
