Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiIt will be released by January 2027 100%9 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
42
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
+24.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
12 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis25 Mar 26 18:11 UTC31 Ara 26 19:10 UTC
Trendler
100%
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Makroya Duyarlı Varlıklar
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketWhich companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
KalshiWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
PolymarketKurallar
Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will use highly credible reporting (e.g., The Information) and signals like OpenAI employees posting potato emojis to identify which model is "Spud".
- The market is primarily intended to let people bet on a leaked codename, and may not necessarily close/resolve.
- Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Many or all of the sub-questions in this market may never resolve if sufficient evidence does not emerge to confirm which model is "Spud" or its properties.
Açık piyasalar
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+12.5pt81.2%
- Yes-12.5pt18.8%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺847,2 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺57,5 Mn
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-18.0pt52%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-22.0pt48%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-28.0pt47%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt79%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- December 31,-2.5pt84%
- November 30,+2.5pt79%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIHow many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Above 50-3.0pt50%
- Above 55-21.0pt43%
- Above 58-10.0pt36%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETWhich Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Thom Tillis-0.5pt41%
- Kirsten Gillibrand+8.0pt36%
- Mike Lee-4.0pt34%
+12 daha fazla sonuç
- Will the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed?
- How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- Which Senators will vote for Clarity Act cloture?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by which date?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- SB Energy IPO Closing Market Cap
- Conference to Win the National Championship
İlgili Kriptolar
Sık sorulan sorular
- What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 15 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla It will be released by January 2027 için 100% fiyatlıyor.
- What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2026.
- What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will use highly credible reporting (e.g., The Information) and signals like OpenAI employees posting potato emojis to identify which model is "Spud".