Güncel topluluk tahmini
Evet 84%
Tahminciler
181
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
1 dakika önce güncellendi
18 Nis 25 21:11 UTC31 Ara 29 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Manifold MarketsAny study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen in 2026 related to AI?
Manifold MarketsWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsHow many Anthropic/OpenAI employees will resign in September 2026 due to ethical concerns?
Manifold MarketsPublic LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
Imagine that any math problem you can write down on a piece of paper that a team of Fields medalists can solve, AI can as well.
- Until recently, I would've predicted that that was an AGI-complete problem.
- Of course people used to think grandmaster-level chess would require AGI.
- Until 2022 I was sure that commonsense reasoning and being able to explain jokes would require AGI.
- If subhuman general intelligence can be a superhuman mathematical intelligence, that will be another big update for me.
- What if AGI happens first?
Açık piyasalar
Sports
POLYMARKETCincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves: Full game — Over 6.5 total runs51%
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)+12.5pt50%
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)+25.0pt50%
+27 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺228,1 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺228 Mn
KALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
- Los Angeles R11.2%
- Buffalo-1.0pt10.3%
- San Francisco7.8%
+29 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺6,4 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺145,3 Mn
KALSHIMilwaukee vs Philadelphia
- Philadelphia+2.0pt58%
- Milwaukee-2.0pt42%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺127 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺123,7 Mn
KALSHIFedEx Open de France Winner
- Tommy Fleetwood-0.2pt8.9%
- Ludvig Åberg+0.3pt8.9%
- Ryan Gerard-0.1pt6.3%
+97 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHICleveland vs Boston
- Cleveland+18.0pt63.7%
- Boston-18.0pt36.3%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺87,7 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺86,8 Mn
KALSHICassone vs Tabur
- Murphy Cassone57.4%
- Clement Tabur42.6%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺86,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺86,6 Mn
Sık sorulan sorular
- Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 23 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 84% fiyatlıyor.
- Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2029.
- Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Imagine that any math problem you can write down on a piece of paper that a team of Fields medalists can solve, AI can as well.