Güncel topluluk tahmini
Evet 82.4%
Tahminciler
3
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
4 dakika önce güncellendi
1 Ağu 26 16:23 UTC31 Ara 29 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Manifold MarketsAny study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen in 2026 related to AI?
Manifold Markets[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, Will a >5 min video completely generated by an AI have more than 1 billion views on Youtube?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
Imagine that any math problem you can write down on a piece of paper that a team of Fields medalists can solve, AI can as well.
- Until recently, I would've predicted that that was an AGI-complete problem.
- Of course people used to think grandmaster-level chess would require AGI.
- Until 2022 I was sure that commonsense reasoning and being able to explain jokes would require AGI.
- If subhuman general intelligence can be a superhuman mathematical intelligence, that will be another big update for me.
- What if AGI happens first?
Açık piyasalar
Sports
POLYMARKETCincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves: Full game — Over 6.5 total runs51%
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)+12.5pt50%
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)+25.0pt50%
+27 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺228,1 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺228 Mn
KALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
- Los Angeles R11.2%
- Buffalo-1.0pt10.3%
- San Francisco7.8%
+29 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺6,4 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺145,3 Mn
KALSHIMilwaukee vs Philadelphia
- Philadelphia+2.0pt58%
- Milwaukee-2.0pt42%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺127 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺123,7 Mn
KALSHIFedEx Open de France Winner
- Tommy Fleetwood-0.2pt8.9%
- Ludvig Åberg+0.3pt8.9%
- Ryan Gerard-0.1pt6.3%
+97 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHICleveland vs Boston
- Cleveland+18.0pt63.7%
- Boston-18.0pt36.3%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺87,7 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺86,8 Mn
KALSHICassone vs Tabur
- Murphy Cassone57.4%
- Clement Tabur42.6%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺86,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺86,6 Mn
Sık sorulan sorular
- Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 23 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 82.4% fiyatlıyor.
- Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2029.
- Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Imagine that any math problem you can write down on a piece of paper that a team of Fields medalists can solve, AI can as well.