Güncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 58.1%
Tahminciler
45
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
44 dakika önce güncellendi
26 Eyl 23 13:10 UTC2 Oca 29 04:59 UTC
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KalshiKurallar
Resolves YES if at any point before Jan 1, 2029 there is a video on Youtube more than 5 minutes long which I am more than 80% confident is completely generated by AI and which has over 1 billion views.
- To make the judgement on whether it's made by an AI I'll consider whether the technology of the time is capable of the task and obviously if the description of the video says it's made entirely by AI.
- As well as other evidence such as "behind-the-scenes" journalism, videos, etc
- The video must be made entirely based on a single prompt (not cut together or edited by a human).
- Therefore, common techniques used today such as masking an AI over an existing video would not qualify.
- The sound of the video may be human made but if it is, it must not be an integral part of its popularity (such as a music video)
Açık piyasalar
SportsPOLYMARKETLoL: Invictus Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs
- Game Handicap: IG (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5)+79.0pt100%
- Game 1 Winner+43.5pt100%
- Game 2 Winner+42.5pt100%
+60 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺285,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺273 Mn
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz-2.0pt56%
- Alexander Zverev+7.0pt28%
- Ben Shelton9%
+45 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,4 Mr
- 24s Hacim
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona18.1%
- Real Madrid13.3%
- Paris Saint-Germain13.3%
+33 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,3 Mr
KALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
- Los Angeles R14.1%
- Buffalo6.6%
- Seattle6.6%
+29 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺4,1 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺79,8 Mn
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)MLB: Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers (Sep 7, 2026)
- MIL+44.0pt99%
- CHC-46.0pt1%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺74,8 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺74,8 Mn
POLYMARKETGenoa: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Francesco Ferrari
- Ferrari Set 1 Winner60%
- Ferrari Set 2 Winner59%
- Ferrari Set Handicap +/-1.559%
+13 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺65,8 Mn
- MLB: New York Mets vs Miami Marlins (Sep 7, 2026)
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- Heisman Trophy Winner
- MLB: Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox (Sep 7, 2026)
- College Football National Championship Winner
- Amgen Irish Open Winner
- US Open Women's Singles Winner
- LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - LCK Challengers League Playoffs
- MLB: Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles (Sep 7, 2026)
- Counter-Strike: BIG vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
- Pro Football: 2027 Champion
Sık sorulan sorular
- In 2028, Will a >5 min video completely generated by an AI have more than 1 billion views on Youtube? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 58% fiyatlıyor.
- In 2028, Will a >5 min video completely generated by an AI have more than 1 billion views on Youtube? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- In 2028, Will a >5 min video completely generated by an AI have more than 1 billion views on Youtube? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 2 Ocak 2029.
- In 2028, Will a >5 min video completely generated by an AI have more than 1 billion views on Youtube? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolves YES if at any point before Jan 1, 2029 there is a video on Youtube more than 5 minutes long which I am more than 80% confident is completely generated by AI and which has over 1 billion views.