Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027
PolitikaOne-OffSağlık ve TıpHava DurumuJeopolitikRusya / UkraynaSporSatrançAvrupaYZ1y
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 76.3%
Tahminciler
10
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
7 dakika önce güncellendi
11 Eyl 23 16:24 UTC2 Oca 28 06:59 UTC
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
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Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketKurallar
We will evaluate by:
- 1) selecting an article from news
- 2) paste the article into an LLM along with the question: "based on this article, how confident are you that this event has happened from 0-100%? Please answer by filling in this template: {" text of disaster from list above", probability: X%}
- If the average probability across leadingLLMs or the best AI agents at the time, across five tries each, is over 70%, this can resolve true.
- So overall we use the LLM to evaluate the claim based on an article.
- I'm going to try to seek truth as much as possible and not accept a trick or false or unintuitive resolution.
