Güncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 61%
Tahminciler
9
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
13 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis23 Eyl 25 01:52 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Manifold MarketsSuperhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketKurallar
https://joeandseth.substack.com/p/prompt-writing-outsourcing-cognition
- Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if, by 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2026, there is at least one publicly released empirical study with n > 1000 human participants that reports a statistically significant reduction in unassisted problem-solving performance for “heavy AI users” (as defined by the study: e.g., top-quantile usage logs, assigned heavy-use condition, or clearly specified frequent-use threshold) compared to lighter/non-users or to their own baseline when AI is not allowed during the outcome assessment (p < 0.05 or 95% CI excluding zero).
- “Unassisted problem-solving” = tasks completed without AI access at test time (e.g., proctored exams, reasoning/problem-solving assessments where AI tools are prohibited).
- n > 1000 refers to unique participants analyzed (not number of items/tasks/observations).
- Multi-site replications may aggregate across identical protocols if the combined participant count exceeds 1000.
Sık sorulan sorular
- Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 22 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 61% fiyatlıyor.
- Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2026.
- Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: https://joeandseth.substack.com/p/prompt-writing-outsourcing-cognition