Güncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 58.2%
Tahminciler
49
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
4 dakika önce güncellendi
12 Eki 25 18:55 UTC30 Haz 27 22:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen in 2026 related to AI?
Manifold MarketsWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsSuperhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Manifold MarketsPrime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
KalshiNext Prime Minister of Romania?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolves to YES if any LLM released in 2026 exceeds the superforecaster baseline on ForecastBench by July 2027.
- Resolves to NO if this does not happen, or if after January 1, 2027 we have results from enough LLMs (e.g. the leading models from the major AI labs at the time) to be confident this will not occur.
- If The Forecasting Research Institute tells us how this market should resolve, then we will go with what they say.
Açık piyasalar
SportsPOLYMARKETCincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves: Full game — Over 6.5 total runs51%
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)+12.5pt50%
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)+25.0pt50%
+27 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺228,1 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺228 Mn
KALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
- Los Angeles R11.2%
- Buffalo-1.0pt10.3%
- San Francisco7.8%
+29 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺6,4 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺145,3 Mn
KALSHIMilwaukee vs Philadelphia
- Philadelphia+2.0pt58%
- Milwaukee-2.0pt42%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺127 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺123,7 Mn
KALSHIFedEx Open de France Winner
- Tommy Fleetwood-0.2pt8.9%
- Ludvig Åberg+0.3pt8.9%
- Ryan Gerard-0.1pt6.3%
+97 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHICleveland vs Boston
- Cleveland+18.0pt63.7%
- Boston-18.0pt36.3%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺87,7 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺86,8 Mn
KALSHICassone vs Tabur
- Murphy Cassone57.4%
- Clement Tabur42.6%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺86,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺86,6 Mn
Sık sorulan sorular
- Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 23 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 58.2% fiyatlıyor.
- Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 30 Haziran 2027.
- Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolves to YES if any LLM released in 2026 exceeds the superforecaster baseline on ForecastBench by July 2027.