Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiScores at least 40% on Terminal Bench Science 98.9%+48.9pt10 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
25
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
+48.9 pts
Piyasa verileri
9 dakika önce güncellendi
3 Eyl 26 1:542 Eki 26 22:59
Trendler
Kurallar
All benchmarks (except for Artificial Analysis and Frontier Math Open Problems) will resolve according to what OpenAI claims Astra scores on them.
- In Lieu of that, I will look to third-party benchmarking, prioritizing the benchmark's official leaderboard (like https://www.terminal-bench-science.ai/ for terminal bench science)
- [link preview]
Açık piyasalar
AI
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- September 30+1.1pt100%
- October 31+0.9pt100%
- September 25+1.3pt99%
+12 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺63,2 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺30,7 Mn
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.5pt62.1%
- ChatGPT-1.1pt19.4%
- Grok+1.2pt7.8%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺492 Mn
POLYMARKETOpenAI's Astra released on?
- September 4+14.7pt19.6%
- September 8+15.9pt15.9%
- September 9+15.6pt15.9%
+27 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETGPT-6 released by which date?
- October 31,+5.8pt100%
- November 30,+3.7pt100%
- December 31,+3.6pt100%
+10 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIWhen will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- Before Sep 16, 2026+12.0pt99%
- Before Oct 1, 2026+7.0pt99%
- Before Nov 1, 2026+9.0pt99%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺34 Mn
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude-17.0pt68.2%
- ChatGPT+14.0pt23.4%
- Gemini2.8%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺8,8 Mn
- Which week will OpenAI release Astra?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- When will OpenAI release Astra?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Which companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- When will any company achieve AGI?
- AI capability growth this year?
- Top Coding AI this month (Arena.ai)
Sık sorulan sorular
- OpenAI Astra Prop Bets için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 4 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Scores at least 40% on Terminal Bench Science için 99% fiyatlıyor.
- OpenAI Astra Prop Bets ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- OpenAI Astra Prop Bets için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 2 Ekim 2026.
- OpenAI Astra Prop Bets nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: All benchmarks (except for Artificial Analysis and Frontier Math Open Problems) will resolve according to what OpenAI claims Astra scores on them.