KalshiKapalıKullanılabilirliği kontrol etKYC gerekliDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreBu piyasa sonuçlandı: Claude (99%)
Sonuçlandı: 30 Eyl 2026 14:43
Sağlayıcı tarafından doğrulanmış sonuç
CoinRithm bu piyasa için kazanan ve sonuçlanma zamanı konusunda sağlayıcı destekli kanıta sahip.
Veri kalitesi uyarısıEski veriler
30 Eyl 2026 13:46 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4
Olasılık Zaman Çizelgesi
Claude99%
ChatGPT2%
ClaudeKazandı
GrokKaybetti
QwenKaybetti
ChatGPTKaybetti
DolaKaybetti
GLMKaybetti
KimiKaybetti
GeminiKaybetti
MiniMaxKaybetti
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
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Manifold MarketsWhich lab will have the #1 model on the arena.ai Agent leaderboard on November 2, 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWho will have the top model on arena.ai Agent Arena accessible through a <$20/mo subscription on November 1st 2026?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
Arşivlenmiş etkinlik düzeyi kurallar. Her sonucun kesin şartları artık mevcut değil.
If Claude is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Sep 30, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Uzlaşma kaynağı:LMArena Code
- Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them.
- If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down.
- Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League.
- All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
- If Qwen is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Sep 30, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
