Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiAI winter 33.1%4 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
29
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
13 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis2 Tem 25 14:51 UTC30 Ara 34 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
In which years will humanity still exist? (2050 to 1 million AD)
Manifold MarketsWill humanity still exist in 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill Vladimir Putin still be alive at the beginning of 2030?
Manifold MarketsIs Jeffrey Epstein still alive and manipulating the markets? Will we find out by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?
Manifold MarketsWill any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
By default, continued AI development is assumed to lead to existential catastrophe.
- If we survive until 2035, this market asks: what kind of world are we in?
- This is a retrospective counterfactual question: imagine it is January 1st, 2035, and humanity is still alive.
- What explains our survival?
- Resolution Criteria: On December 30th, 2035, this market will resolve to the option that best describes the primary reason humanity avoided extinction by that date.
- Resolution will be based on public evidence and expert consensus to the extent possible.
