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Gecikmeli3 Haz 24 18:34 UTC4 Haz 24 06:59 UTC
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If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, would most Manifold users still be alive in a year?
Manifold MarketsWill a solar storm at least as powerful as the Carrington Event hit Earth before superintelligence is created?
Manifold MarketsIf another Carrington Event happens, will I be able to resolve this?
Manifold MarketsIf a solar flare at least as strong as the Carrington Event hits Earth before 2030, will we recover within 15 years?
Manifold MarketsWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiKurallar
Wikipedia article for the Carrington Event
- For the sake of the question, "another Carrington Event" is defined as a storm with a Dst of -1000 nT hitting the Earth.
- Would the civilian electrical grid either (1) not come down, or (2) be fixed and usuable again by most people within 7 days?
- This market won't resolve unless the event in question actually occurs.
- The question should be interpreted relative to when you are reading this, rather than relative to when the market was begun.