Conditional on Mass Unemployment due to AI in the US, which happens first?
EkonomiOne-OffYZSağlık ve Tıp
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiUniversal Basic Income 71.9%
Tahminciler
5
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
20 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis8 Ağu 25 03:07 UTC31 Ara 50 06:17 UTC
Trendler
Kurallar
not sure what the exact cutoff for Mass Unemployment is (10%, 20%, 50%) and for how long that rate needs to last
- but I think maybe 20% for a year seems reasonable (assuming it’s due to AI automation rather than other factors e.g. pandemics, wars, etc.) the spirit of the market is when it’s normalized to not be employed long term.
- for UBI to count, it needs to be on the order of $1000 a month (i.e. enough to cover living expenses) so comparable to Social Security
- UBC has to be through the government (not the current equivalent of ChatGPT free tier) unless a corporation achieves an absurd amount of profit (e.g 1% of world gdp ~1T) and has a windfall or similar agreement to share their wealth with all citizens.
- Currently don’t like how long the description is so I’m open to suggestions to simplify the the criteria but the main goal is to see which of UBI or UBC is more likely to actually happen given that they seem unlikely right now.
- Should resolve to one of the 2 unless
