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8 Eyl 2026 22:05 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-3
Güncel ima edilen olasılık
September 30 50%
Piyasa kalitesi
30 / 100
Düşük kalite24s Hacim
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Likidite
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Likidite bilinmiyorPiyasa verileri
7 dakika önce güncellendi
25 Ağu 26 14:01 UTC1 Eki 26 03:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketUS-Iran nuclear deal?
KalshiWhere will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
PolymarketWill a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US-Iran war end before the 2026 midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
the named outcome · the named outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran.
A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met.
- A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement.
- Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement.
Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement.
- Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify.
- A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement.
Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves.
- Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement.
Tahmin Kaynağı Karşılaştırması
- Polymarket üzerinde de mevcut — US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? · September 30 6%
Açık piyasalar
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.3pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.0pt3%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,3 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺29,5 Mn
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.9pt47.8%
- October 31-3.0pt29.2%
- September 30-4.0pt12.4%
+17 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-5.0pt74%
- September 18-10.0pt67%
- September 11-2.5pt63%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺2 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,3 Mn
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
Sık sorulan sorular
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Limitless, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla September 30 için 50% fiyatlıyor.
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ekim 2026.
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Limitless bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: the named outcome · the named outcome. <p>This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.</p><p><br></p><p>A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran.</p><p><br></p><p>A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.</p><p><br></p><p>All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met.
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date? başka nerede listeleniyor?
- Aynı soru şu platformlarda da listeleniyor: Polymarket.