Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026?
US PoliticsOne-OffJeopolitikMiddle East22gManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 88.9%
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Guncelligini yitirmis31 Tem 26 03:43 UTC1 Eki 26 00:00 UTC
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KalshiUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
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Manifold MarketsIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolves YES if a ceasefire or cessation of hostilities between the United States and Iran TAKES EFFECT at any point from 2026-08-01 through 2026-09-30 inclusive, with both governments publicly acknowledging it.
- A ceasefire counts even if it later collapses.
- The question is whether one takes effect inside the window - not whether it holds.
- RESOLUTION SOURCES (priority order):
- English Wikipedia, "2026 Iran war" - whether the article records a US-Iran ceasefire taking effect within the window
- Al Jazeera (aljazeera.com)
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Sık sorulan sorular
- Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 89% fiyatlıyor.
- Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ekim 2026.
- Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolves YES if a ceasefire or cessation of hostilities between the United States and Iran TAKES EFFECT at any point from 2026-08-01 through 2026-09-30 inclusive, with both governments publicly acknowledging it.