KalshiKullanılabilirliği kontrol etKYC gerekliDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreSeçili emir defteri orta fiyatı
Before Jan 1, 2029 · —
Seçili emir defteri yükleniyor…
—
Kayıtlı fiyat
Before Jan 1, 2029 69%3 seçenek arasında lider
Before Jan 1, 2029 69%Piyasa kalitesi
37 / 100
Düşük kalite24s Hacim
—
Açık pozisyon
$1,2 B
Düşük açık pozisyonAlış / Satış
— / —
Before Jan 1, 2029Spread
—
Piyasa verileri
12 dakika önce güncellendi
17 Eyl 26 04:00 UTC31 Ara 26 18:59 UTC
Grafik ve değişimler, seçili canlı emir defterini değil kayıtlı geçmiş olasılıkları gösterir.
Trendler
Seçili satır: emir defteri orta fiyatı. Diğer satırlar: normalleştirilmiş olabilen kayıtlı referanslar; 24 saatlik değişimler kayıtlı geçmişi kullanır.
İşlem platformu koşulları
Kaynak: Kalshi
Bu koşullar yalnızca bilgi amaçlıdır; CoinRithm deneme işlemlerinde kendi kurallarını uygular.
- Erken kapanış:
- Evet
- Sonuçlandırma süresi:
- 30m (bilgi amaçlı)
Piyasa derinliği · Before Jan 1, 2029
Seçili emir defteri yükleniyor…
—
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?
PolymarketIf GPT-5 can do recursive self-improvement, will it first be via fine-tuning on its outputs?
Manifold MarketsSometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.
Manifold MarketsWhen will an OpenAI model achieve a High risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsWhen will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsOpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize?
PolymarketKurallar
If OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The statement must describe an achieved capability in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, prompt, skill, or benchmark-only improvements do not qualify. Humans may provide high-level goals, resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or technical solution. The capability must be affirmatively described as currently achieved in an official company communication or by an executive or research leader speaking about the company's capabilities. Future plans, speculation, offhand remarks, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims do not qualify. A public release, named model, technical demonstration, or independent verification is not required.
Her sonucun kuralı
- Before Jan 1, 2029
- If OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.