When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each?

YZ BeyzbolOne-Off9y

Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibre

Güncel topluluk tahmini

Before Dec 2035 88.7%

10 seçenek arasında lider

Tahminciler

Soru türü

multiple choice

Yöntem

Play-money forecasting platform

Kaynak türü

Tahmin

7g Değişim

0.0 pts

Piyasa verileri

2 saat önce güncellendi

Guncelligini yitirmis

28 Şub 26 01:48 UTC1 Oca 36 06:59 UTC

Trendler

Sonuç24sOlasılık

Kurallar

Recursive self-improvement: a single AI system autonomously identifies modifications to its own training, architecture, or inference pipeline, implements them, and produces measurable capability gains (≥5% on standardized benchmark) — 3 sequential cycles with no human intervention between them.

Human-designed "improvement menus" don't qualify; the system must identify the type of modification itself.
Independently verified.
Full methodology: https://www.future-shock.ai/research/agi-predictions
Future Shock ensemble prediction: July 2027 (±6 months).
Also submitted to Metaculus.

Bu piyasayla ilgili veri sorunu bildir

When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each?

YZ BeyzbolOne-Off9y

Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibre

Güncel topluluk tahmini

Before Dec 2035 88.7%

10 seçenek arasında lider

Tahminciler

Soru türü

multiple choice

Yöntem

Play-money forecasting platform

Kaynak türü

Tahmin

7g Değişim

0.0 pts

Piyasa verileri

2 saat önce güncellendi

Guncelligini yitirmis

28 Şub 26 01:48 UTC1 Oca 36 06:59 UTC

Trendler

Sonuç24sOlasılık

Kurallar

Human-designed "improvement menus" don't qualify; the system must identify the type of modification itself.
Independently verified.
Full methodology: https://www.future-shock.ai/research/agi-predictions
Future Shock ensemble prediction: July 2027 (±6 months).
Also submitted to Metaculus.

Bu piyasayla ilgili veri sorunu bildir

Sık sorulan sorular

When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each? için güncel oranlar nedir?: Manifold Markets, 26 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Before Dec 2035 için 88.7% fiyatlıyor.
When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?: When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2036.
When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?: Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Recursive self-improvement: a single AI system autonomously identifies modifications to its own training, architecture, or inference pipeline, implements them, and produces measurable capability gains (≥5% on standardized benchmark) — 3 sequential cycles with no human intervention between them.

Bu piyasayı kodda veya bir yapay zeka ajanında kullanın

Bu piyasa için ücretsiz JSON, API anahtarı gerekmez:

https://api.coinrithm.com/api/prediction-markets/events/manifold/when-will-an-ai-system-complete-3-a

Yapay zeka ajanları: CoinRithm MCP sunucusunda pm_data_event aracını çağırın:

https://mcp.coinrithm.com/mcp

Veri API belgeleri Bir ajan bağlayın

When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each?

When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each?

Sık sorulan sorular

Bu piyasayı kodda veya bir yapay zeka ajanında kullanın

Açık piyasalar

Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

Best AI at the end of 2026?

DeepSeek market share this week

Trump renames AI by which date?

Which company has the best AI model end of September?

Anthropic market share this week