When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
0.5 puan (24s)YZOne-Off8yManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiBefore 2035 78.8%+0.5pt10 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
6
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
+0.5 pts
Piyasa verileri
17 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis30 Tem 25 15:46 UTC1 Oca 35 16:44 UTC
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KalshiKurallar
As reported by OpenAI.
- For more detail about criteria, though they closely track the intuitive spirit of the question, see the excellent Metaculus question that is the source of this market:
- https://www.metaculus.com/c/risk/38787/dates-that-openai-reports-an-ai-reached-these-self-improvement-risk-levels/
- Background info (from Metaculus):
- OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework, version 2, from April 15th 2025, defines the AI Self-improvement risk category aimed at tracking:
- The ability of an AI system to accelerate AI research, including to increase the system’s own capability.
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+3 daha fazla sonuç
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+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
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- Claude61.8%
- ChatGPT-4.9pt22.6%
- Grok+1.5pt7.8%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
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- ₺511,4 Mn
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+4.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-3.0pt12%
- Grok2.8%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
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- ₺18,2 Mn
- 24s Hacim
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Sık sorulan sorular
- When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus] için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Before 2035 için 79% fiyatlıyor.
- When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus] ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus] için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2035.
- When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus] nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: As reported by OpenAI.