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28 Eki 2026 20:49 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4
Güncel ima edilen olasılık
December 31 22%
December 31 22%Piyasa kalitesi
26 / 100
Düşük kalite24s Hacim
—
Likidite
₺89,2 B
Düşük likiditeİşlemciler
3
Yorumlar
0
Piyasa verileri
1 dakika önce güncellendi
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Hezbollah disarm by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
PolymarketWill Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?
Manifold MarketsWill Bibi Netanyahu lose power during or in the aftermath after the 2023 Hamas-Israel War
Manifold MarketsKurallar
This set of markets predicts whether Hamas will officially announce that it will disarm in the Gaza Strip.
- Each market below covers one possible deadline; any number of these markets may resolve "Yes" (an announcement made before an earlier deadline also counts toward all later deadlines).
- A market resolves "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip on or before the market's deadline.
- For the purposes of this event, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
- Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons, or agreeing to disarm in stages or in a certain region) qualify as long as they are part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
- Only official announcements qualify — for example, by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas.
Tahmin Kaynağı Karşılaştırması
- Polymarket üzerinde de mevcut — Will Hamas agree to disarm by...? · December 31, 7%
- Manifold Markets üzerinde de mevcut — Will Hamas agree to disarm by...? · End of 2026 10%