Probabilidade implícita atual
Sim 81%+2.5pt
Qualidade do mercado
56 / 100
Qualidade médiaVolume 24h
5,4 €
Liquidez
7,5 mil €
Liquidez médiaCompra / Venda
79.0% / 83.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Spread moderadoComentários
7
Variação 7d
-0.5 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 10 minutos
8/07/26, 01:59 UTC31/12/26, 22:59 UTC
Tendências
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FutuurRegras
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a political group (group politique) is officially formed in the French Senate that represents the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The political declaration forming a qualifying group must be published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France within the specified timeframe.
- A group will qualify as representing the RN if it satisfies at least one of the following: - Its official name includes "Rassemblement National" or a clear variant thereof; - Its political declaration published in the Journal Officiel explicitly identifies the group as representing the RN; - A majority of its full members are RN party members or were assigned an RN nuance politique by the French Ministry of the Interior at the election in which they won their seat; or - RN national leadership publicly recognizes the group as the party's group in the Senate, and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting.
- A mixed group containing both RN and other senators qualifies only if it meets at least one of the criteria above.
- The administrative meeting of senators not appearing on the list of any group (RASNAG) will not qualify as a group for the purposes of this market.