How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
3.5 pts (24h)PolíticaOne-OffUS PoliticsEleição
PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosSem cotações ao vivo
Dados de 27 de jul. de 2026, 16:40 UTC · política pm-quality-3
Probabilidade implícita atual4-6 80%+0.1ptLíder entre 6 opções
Qualidade do mercado
35 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
0 €
Liquidez
10,9 mil €
Liquidez médiaCompra / Venda
2.7% / 30.6%
Spread
27.9 pt
Spread amploVariação 7d
-0.4 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 14 minutos
Tendências
Apenas fundos simulados, sem dinheiro realIsto não é aconselhamento financeiro
Resultado escolhido
4-680%
Comparar plataformas· 3
Classificado por qualidade de mercado, depois liquidez e volume de 24h| Plataforma | Qualidade | Probabilidade | vs. referência | Volume 24h | Liquidez | Atualização | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiMelhor no geral80% de correspondência · verificado | Média | 26% | 0pt | 364,6 € | 178,7 mil € | há 14 minutos | Abrir → |
| PolymarketEsta página | Baixa | 80% | +54pt | 0 € | 10,9 mil € | há 14 minutos |
Também disponível em Kalshi
How many Senate Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?
1.0 pts3m
69.4%
-1.0pt26.5%
4.1%
+1 mais resultados
72 • Qualidade médiaSpread moderadoAlta liquidezAlta ambiguidade
Volume total376,3 mil €
Volume 24h364,6 €
KALSHIRegras
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
- This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
- An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason.
- Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
- This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026.
- If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
Os dados de comparação são apenas informativos. Preços e liquidez podem variar.
Tendência de volume
$633 de jul.19d de dados27 de jul.
Mercados Relacionados
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
945,2 mil €Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 49%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Presidential Election Winner 2028
472 mil €JD Vance: 20%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Florida Republican Governor nominee?
437,1 mil €James Fishback: 3%KALSHI
KALSHI
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
428,1 mil €Gavin Newsom: 19%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Ohio Governor winner?
347,4 mil €Vivek Ramaswamy: 51%KALSHI
KALSHI
2028 Republican presidential nominee
179,6 mil €Donald J. Trump: 3%KALSHI
KALSHIAtivos nestes tópicos
Notícias Relacionadas
Polymarket odds swing: Eizenkot hits 51% as Israel campaign kicks offBlockchain.News
Polymarket: Vance leads 2028 at 19.85% as pricing trend softensBlockchain.News
White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk
Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News
White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraph
Polymarket odds show Vance at 19.85% as Epstein files critique hits tapeBlockchain.NewsRegras
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
- This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
- An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason.
- Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
- This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026.
- If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.