PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
8–9% 27.9%+0.5ptLíder entre 7 opçõesAjustado pela margem: as cotações brutas somavam mais de 100% e foram normalizadas.
Qualidade do mercado
≤49 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
—
Liquidez
28,2 mil €
Alta liquidezSpread
7.0 pt
Spread amploComentários
0
Variação 7d
-3.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 14 minutos
2/09/26, 18:26 UTC7/11/26, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Condições da plataforma
Fonte: Polymarket
Estas condições são informativas; as operações simuladas da CoinRithm seguem regras próprias.
- Ordem mínima (cotas):
- 5
- Incremento de preço:
- 1 pontos percentuais
- Taxas:
- Sim
Regras
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
- This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
- For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
- In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
- In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
Comparação de fontes de previsão
Mercados abertos
US Politics
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+2.0pt62.4%
- D-House, R-Senate-1.0pt28.7%
- Republicans sweep-0.5pt7.9%
+1 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 16,9 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,5 mi
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- 25 bps increase52.5%
- No change-1.0pt45.5%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.6pt65%
- October 31-4.0pt35%
- September 30-3.0pt8%
+17 mais resultados
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.2pt4%
- September 30-0.6pt0%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 61 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 540,5 mil
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No+1.0pt86%
- Yes-1.0pt14%
- Volume total
- € 59,7 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 539,1 mil
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio-0.5pt15%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 617,7 mi
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- What will Trump say during his United Nations meetings?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Florida Governor winner?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Texas Senate winner?
- Will Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de GOP Black vote share??
- A Polymarket cota 8–9% em 27.9% em 23 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando GOP Black vote share? é resolvido?
- GOP Black vote share? deverá ser resolvido em 7 de novembro de 2026.
- Como GOP Black vote share? é liquidado?
- A Polymarket liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
- Onde mais GOP Black vote share? está listado?
- A mesma pergunta também está listada em Kalshi.