KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
Above 8% 82%Líder entre 6 opções
Qualidade do mercado
41 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
—
Liquidez
7,4 mil €
Liquidez médiaSpread
7.0 pt
Spread amploDados do mercado
Atualizado há 16 minutos
16/09/26, 21:00 UTC6/11/26, 16:59 UTC
Tendências
Condições da plataforma
Fonte: Kalshi
Estas condições são informativas; as operações simuladas da CoinRithm seguem regras próprias.
- Encerramento antecipado:
- Sim
- Prazo de liquidação:
- 30m (informativo)
Regras
If the Republican share of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 8%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The value is the percentage shown in the Republican (or Rep.) column of the aggregate Black row in the national U.S. House exit poll table.
- The primary resolution source is the CNN figure displayed at exactly 12:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026.
- If unavailable, CNN remains the primary source for 24 hours after that time.
- If it remains unavailable, use CBS News followed by ABC News through 11:59 PM ET on November 7, 2026.
- If the Republican share of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Comparação de fontes de previsão
Mercados abertos
US PoliticsKALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+2.0pt62.4%
- D-House, R-Senate-1.0pt28.7%
- Republicans sweep-0.5pt7.9%
+1 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 16,9 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,5 mi
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- 25 bps increase52.5%
- No change-1.0pt45.5%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.6pt65%
- October 31-4.0pt35%
- September 30-3.0pt8%
+17 mais resultados
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.2pt4%
- September 30-0.6pt0%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 61 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 540,5 mil
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No+1.0pt86%
- Yes-1.0pt14%
- Volume total
- € 59,7 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 539,1 mil
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio-0.5pt15%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 617,7 mi
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- What will Trump say during his United Nations meetings?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Florida Governor winner?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Texas Senate winner?
- Will Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Midterms: Republican share of Black vote??
- A Kalshi cota Above 8% em 82% em 23 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Midterms: Republican share of Black vote? é resolvido?
- Midterms: Republican share of Black vote? deverá ser resolvido em 6 de novembro de 2026.
- Como Midterms: Republican share of Black vote? é liquidado?
- A Kalshi liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: If the Republican share of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 8%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Onde mais Midterms: Republican share of Black vote? está listado?
- A mesma pergunta também está listada em Polymarket.