Will Yuri Oganessian live to see the announcement of a new chemical element discovery?
Russia / UkraineOne-OffCiência4aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 71%
Previsores
2
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 14 horas
Desatualizado27/08/26, 05:31 UTC31/12/30, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- The market resolves to YES if, while Yuri Oganessian is alive, the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC) or the IUPAC/IUPAP Joint Working Party (JWP) officially announces the validation and recognition of the discovery of any new chemical element with an atomic number of 119 or greater.
- The official IUPAC announcement of discovery validation (similar to the historical verifications for elements 113, 115, 117, and 118) will serve as the primary source of truth.
- The market resolves to NO if Yuri Oganessian passes away before such an official announcement of validation is publicly released by IUPAC.
- Informal or unverified claims of synthesis, papers published in peer-reviewed journals without joint IUPAC/IUPAP validation, or temporary placeholder systematic names do not suffice to trigger a "YES" resolution.
- Formal validation from IUPAC/IUPAP is required.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Yuri Oganessian live to see the announcement of a new chemical element discovery??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 71% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Yuri Oganessian live to see the announcement of a new chemical element discovery? é resolvido?
- Will Yuri Oganessian live to see the announcement of a new chemical element discovery? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2030.
- Como Will Yuri Oganessian live to see the announcement of a new chemical element discovery? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria