Will Trump fire a Nuke into Iran before 2027?
2.8 pts (24h)PolíticaOne-OffOriente MédioEsportesCríqueteGeopolíticaPolítica dos EUA1m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 95.3%+2.8pt
Previsores
4
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+45.3 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado2/11/26, 09:43 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to Yes if, before January 1, 2027 (11:59:59 PM UTC), the United States military, acting under the executive authority or direct order of Donald Trump as President of the United States, detonates a nuclear weapon inside the internationally recognized sovereign territory or airspace of Iran.
- This market resolves to No if Donald Trump leaves office, ceases to be President, or if no such detonation occurs before January 1, 2027.
- Resolution will rely on official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense, the White House, or confirmation by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or United Nations Security Council, corroborated by multiple major news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press).
- Conventional strikes, cyber warfare, or covert sabotage of nuclear facilities do not qualify.
- The weapon must be an actual nuclear explosive device detonated inside Iran.
