Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration?
US PoliticsOne-Off2aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 84.4%
Previsores
41
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 horas
Desatualizado16/02/25, 17:10 UTC21/01/29, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Trump ban gun sales to transgender people?
Manifold MarketsPeak US National Debt Under Trump Administration
KalshiWhat will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration?
KalshiWill DeSantis have a role in Trump’s administration?
Manifold MarketsWill the Trump administration detonate a nuclear bomb?
Manifold MarketsWho will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?
KalshiRegras
Background: some people have claimed that the Trump administration plans to refuse passports to trans people.
- The State Department has said they will « only issue passports with an M or F sex marker that match the customer's biological sex at birth. » Some trans people report delays of less than a month in passport processing.
- This question will resolve YES if credible reports emerge of at least 5 people being denied US passports because they are trans.
- The question will NOT resolve yes if:
- 1) Trans people are denied passports for reasons unrelated to being trans
- 2) Delays in passport processing occur
Mercados abertos
US Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 605,7 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 695,7 mil
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 603,2 mi
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 mais resultados
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 mais resultados
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Volume total
- € 24,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 294,7 mil
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 54,7 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 291,3 mil
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 84% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration? é resolvido?
- Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration? deverá ser resolvido em 21 de janeiro de 2029.
- Como Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Background: some people have claimed that the Trump administration plans to refuse passports to trans people.