Previsão da comunidade atual
Não 72.4%
Previsores
41
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 16 horas
Desatualizado28/01/24, 17:00 UTC4/02/40, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will the arctic be ice-free for any period of time ("blue ocean event") before summer 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be 50 people in space at any moment before 2030?
Manifold MarketsDoes Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiRegras
Judged using https://www.howmanypeopleareinspacerightnow.com/ if possible, otherwise any other reputable source would be accepted
Mercados abertos
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 103,1 mil
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume total
- € 57,4 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 57,4 mil
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 mais resultados
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 mais resultados
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume total
- € 817,9 mil
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will there be zero people in space for any period of time before 2040??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 72% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will there be zero people in space for any period of time before 2040? é resolvido?
- Will there be zero people in space for any period of time before 2040? deverá ser resolvido em 4 de fevereiro de 2040.
- Como Will there be zero people in space for any period of time before 2040? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Judged using https://www.howmanypeopleareinspacerightnow.com/ if possible, otherwise any other reputable source would be accepted