Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?
One-OffIATecnologia2aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 78.4%
Previsores
54
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 8 horas
Desatualizado23/05/24, 13:18 UTC31/05/29, 03:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Greta Thunberg joins AI safety/pause movement before 2035?
Manifold MarketsU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketUS-China Track 1 AI dialogue commits to shared AI safety benchmark by '27?
Manifold Markets[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
FutuurBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegras
From: https://x.com/_ArnaudS_/status/1793209848953233872.
- "Will "AI safety" be considered a coherent movement with leaders and an agenda vs a descriptor for some cluster of skills/techniques that some within AI-focused companies are familiar with?"
- Resolves YES if there is indeed a coherent movement with the agenda of AI Notkilleveryoneism.
- It must have at least one identifiable leader figure, and an agenda.
- It need not still have the name "AI Safety" but it must remain relevant.
- Resolves NO if this is no longer the case, meaning that when people think of how we prevent AI from killing everyone, they think about technical techniques within AI companies, or similar.
Mercados abertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- € 224,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 160,5 mil
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,3 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 344,9 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 mais resultados
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 78% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029? é resolvido?
- Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de maio de 2029.
- Como Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: From: https://x.com/_ArnaudS_/status/1793209848953233872.