Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop
One-OffTecnologiaIA3m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Sim 90.6%
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56
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 2 horas
Desatualizado26/12/23, 19:45 UTC2/01/27, 07:54 UTC
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For decades, people have talked about the "year of the Linux desktop", with non-specific criteria but generally a subjective impression that Linux is ready for mainstream use.
- For years, people have talked about self-driving cars being right around the corner.
- This market resolves YES if reliable self-driving cars are generally available (e.g. summonable for a ride by anyone in a large-scale market such as a country or several entire states of a country, not a 1-2 city trial) before Linux reaches 10% desktop market share (by some reasonably objective metric).
- This market resolves NO if Linux reaches 10% desktop computer market share before reliable self-driving cars are generally available.
- I expect to extend this market's close date if neither condition occurs.
Mercados abertos
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 1,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,3 mi
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
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- € 1,1 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 802,6 mil
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Volume total
- € 736,5 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 585,6 mil
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 mais resultados
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POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.4%
- 200-219+8.0pt22.9%
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- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop?
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 91% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop é resolvido?
- Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: For decades, people have talked about the "year of the Linux desktop", with non-specific criteria but generally a subjective impression that Linux is ready for mainstream use.