Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?
One-OffPolítica dos EUARegulamentação3mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 92.1%
Previsores
33
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 3 minutos
14/04/25, 06:21 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Venezuela have a higher incarceration rate in 2028 than it did in 2022?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump refuse to carry out or obey any Supreme Court decisions?
Manifold MarketsWhen will an AI-related event dominate the mainstream news cycle for at least three consecutive days?
Manifold MarketsWill unit 1 of the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant restart before 2029?
Manifold MarketsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketWill marijuana be rescheduled?
KalshiRegras
Resolves upon publication of the 2025 DHS Yearbook of Immigration Statistics, or earlier if official DHS data is available that can reasonably be expected to contain identical data to what will be in the Yearbook:
- https://ohss.dhs.gov/topics/immigration/yearbook
- The US nonimmigrant inadmissibility rate for the purposes of this market is defined as:
- rate = inadmissible / (admissions + inadmissible)
- If this rate is at least three times as high in 2025 as it was in 2024, the market resolves YES.
- Otherwise it resolves NO.