Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?
CommoditiesOne-OffPolíticaPolítica dos EUAGeopolíticaOriente MédioRússia / UcrâniaChinaTecnologia3a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 81.8%
Previsores
16
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado1/03/26, 04:06 UTC31/12/29, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if the United States formally recognizes the People's Republic of China's sovereignty over Taiwan and terminates its unofficial relations with Taiwan, including ending military support and defense cooperation under the Taiwan Relations Act.
- This would constitute a formal diplomatic concession of Taiwan to the PRC.
- This market also resolves YES if Taiwan becomes formally incorporated into the PRC under an arrangement analogous to Hong Kong's "one country, two systems" framework — including scenarios where Taiwan retains nominal autonomy, a separate economic zone, or continued semiconductor exports to the US — provided that the US formally accepts PRC sovereignty over Taiwan and ends its defense commitments.
- The market resolves NO if the US maintains any form of unofficial military relations with Taiwan, continues arms sales, or preserves defense cooperation frameworks in opposition to China through 2029.
- The market also resolves NO if Taiwan is acquired by the PRC through a military invasion.
