Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 79.4%
Previsores
24
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 2 horas
Desatualizado1/01/26, 16:47 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?
KalshiWill Denmark implement a wealth tax by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsCalifornia wealth tax defeats opposing propositions?
PolymarketWill California’s billionaire tax take effect?
KalshiBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
PolymarketWill the California billionaire wealth tax appear on the ballot?
KalshiRegras
This question will resolve YES if and only if the "2026 Billionaires Tax Act" gets on the ballot, passes, and is upheld by the courts (any legal challenges fail) such that the tax has actually taken effect, and significant (at least $1B) revenue has been collected, by December 31, 2027.
- If legal challenges succeed in striking down the act, or are unresolved by December 31, 2027 such that the tax is suspended and hasn't taken effect yet and its eventual effect is uncertain, the question resolves NO.
Mercados abertos
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 605,7 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 697,7 mil
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 mais resultados
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 603,2 mi
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 183,4 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 471,3 mil
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 mais resultados
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the proposed California wealth tax take substantive effect??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 79% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the proposed California wealth tax take substantive effect? é resolvido?
- Will the proposed California wealth tax take substantive effect? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2027.
- Como Will the proposed California wealth tax take substantive effect? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This question will resolve YES if and only if the "2026 Billionaires Tax Act" gets on the ballot, passes, and is upheld by the courts (any legal challenges fail) such that the tax has actually taken effect, and significant (at least $1B) revenue has been collected, by December 31, 2027.