Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 70%
Previsores
6
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 17 horas
Desatualizado8/07/26, 20:01 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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KalshiWhich bills will become law in 2026?
PolymarketRegras
GAAIA is a bipartisan bill in Congress being proposed by Jay Obernolte (R-CA) and Lori Trahan (D-MA).
- Here is an article about the substance by Charlie Bullock: https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/congress-should-do-something--the-case-for-(fixing)-the-great-american-ai-act
- I can't really figure out what the status is.
- This market uses an expansive definition of "become law".
- It resolves YES if the bill is passed and becomes law in 2026, even if it is somewhat watered down or modified, as long as it remains an AI regulation and/or preemption bill.
- It also resolves YES if the bill's substantive provisions are fully folded into another bill which becomes law, though it resolves NO if only super dumb and toothless provisions make it in.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the Great American AI Act (GAAIA) become law in 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 70% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the Great American AI Act (GAAIA) become law in 2026? é resolvido?
- Will the Great American AI Act (GAAIA) become law in 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Will the Great American AI Act (GAAIA) become law in 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: GAAIA is a bipartisan bill in Congress being proposed by Jay Obernolte (R-CA) and Lori Trahan (D-MA).