Will the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement be ratified by the end of 2026?
Política comercialOne-OffAmérica LatinaEuropa2mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 05:51 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 98.1%
Previsores
13
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 3 horas
Desatualizado31/12/25, 06:04 UTC1/01/27, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement?
KalshiWill the U.S. enact a free trade agreement with China?
KalshiWhen will there be a UK/US free trade agreement?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will join the CPTPP trade agreement before 2030?
Manifold MarketsUS-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. publish the text of its Saudi nuclear agreement by December 31?
Manifold MarketsRegras
A trade deal between the EU and Mercosur (Paraguay, Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, & Uruguay) under negotiation for ~25 years and rejected in 2019 has been agreed.
- Will the deal, or something substantially similar, be ratified by all parties (not necessarily entered into force) by the end of 2026?
- https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-mercosur-set-finalise-contentious-trade-deal-2024-12-06/
- https://www.dw.com/en/eu-delays-signing-mercosur-free-trade-deal-again/a-75237389
- ITA ratification will resolve YES.
- Previous (2025) market: https://manifold.markets/table8473/will-the-eumercosur-free-trade-agre