Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the amount of yearly orbital space launches triple again in the next 5 years??

A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 52.2% em 2 de novembro de 2026.

Will the amount of yearly orbital space launches triple again in the next 5 years?

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Atualizado há 7 horas

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4/02/26, 17:05 UTC1/01/31, 16:55 UTC

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Over the last 5-6 years, there has been a remarkable increase in the number of space launches, highly reminiscent of a typical exponential curve:

[image]On average since 2020, the yearly growth rate was at about 25%, with some variance (from ~18.5% to ~32% YoY), which resulted in more than 3x increase from 104 in 2020 to 317 in 2025
I'm interested to see whether or not the same trend will continue for the next 5 years
This will resolve yes if in year 2030 the number of successful (not total!) orbital space launches will triple compared to 2025, i.e. will be at least 951.
The source will be https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_spaceflight, but if this page will stop reporting accurate data, i will find alternative sources on launch statistics
(as a small bonus: i will tip 250 mana to the person who will suggest the best name for this "law", purely subjective of course)