Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt?
TecnologiaOne-OffEspaço2m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 63%
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34
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 7 horas
Desatualizado11/02/26, 03:50 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if SpaceX successfully catches Starship's upper stage using the Mechazilla tower's "chopstick" arms on their first attempt.
- An attempted catch is defined as any Starship, once having reached orbit, passing a mission milestone where it commits irreversibly to a deorbit trajectory with the possibility and intent of a catch.
- I.E. a deorbit burn targeting the boca chica launch site.
- Any diversion here after would result in a No resolution.
- (Added 08/26/26)
