Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt?
TecnologiaOne-OffSpace3mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 67.1%
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32
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 17 horas
Desatualizado11/02/26, 03:50 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if SpaceX successfully catches Starship's upper stage using the Mechazilla tower's "chopstick" arms on their first attempt.
- An attempted catch is defined as any Starship, once having reached orbit, passing a mission milestone where it commits irreversibly to a deorbit trajectory with the possibility and intent of a catch.
- I.E. a deorbit burn targeting the boca chica launch site.
- Any diversion here after would result in a No resolution.
- (Added 08/26/26)
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 67% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt? é resolvido?
- Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria