Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch?
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Desatualizado4/01/24, 02:01 UTC2/01/32, 06:59 UTC
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Of launches carrying non-dummy payloads, whether SpaceX internal payloads such as Starlink satellites or customer payloads, will the first 500 launches have a 99% success rate or higher? That is, will at least 495 of them deliver their payload to the intended destination?
- IFT-1 and IFT-2 do not qualify, so the count has not started yet.
- Future "test launches" will be counted or not based on whether they carried a payload intended for some useful application.
- (The Falcon Heavy test launch would not be included under this definition.) Cargo, crew, and propellant cargo for refueling missions will all be included.
- Accidents resulting in complete loss of payload during pre-launch operations (eg AMOS-6) will count as failures for this count.
- If the SpaceX Starship is retired before this question resolves, it will resolve based on whether the success rate at retirement is >= 99%.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 60% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch? é resolvido?
- Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2032.
- Como Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Of launches carrying non-dummy payloads, whether SpaceX internal payloads such as Starlink satellites or customer payloads, will the first 500 launches have a 99% success rate or higher? That is, will at least 495 of them deliver their payload to the intended destination?