Will September 2026 U.S. payroll growth turn negative in its first revision?
InflaçãoOne-OffMacro e economiaEconomia5d
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 60.9%
Previsores
5
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 16 horas
Desatualizado29/10/26, 04:53 UTC6/11/26, 13:25 UTC
Tendências
Ativos Sensíveis ao Macro
Regras
Resolves YES if the first BLS Employment Situation release covering October 2026 reports a negative seasonally adjusted change in total U.S. nonfarm payroll employment from August to September 2026.
- Use September minus August employment in the seasonally adjusted Total nonfarm row of Table B-1 in that release.
- A result below zero resolves YES; zero or higher resolves NO.
- If the narrative and table disagree, Table B-1 controls.
- This concerns September’s first monthly revision, not October’s new payroll estimate.
- Use the release as initially published; subsequent corrections, monthly revisions, and annual benchmark revisions do not count.
